I love to get to the end of a sports season like baseball or football and review what the experts predicted as far as winners of titles and awards would be and see how desperately wrong they always seem to be.
Back in December of 2009 I sent out a survey to take a look at predictions on something that has been near to my heart, the economy and what the future was about to bring. While we are not done with the year yet and there is still time for things to change, I wondered where the predictions showed up compared to current reality.
Question #1: Compared to 2009 will 2010 sales for your company. 46% said increase and 35% said decrease. It is hard to say with 1/3 of the year left but judging from the up and down financial news I think that is a pretty accurate prediction.
Question #2: In 2010 will your income 46% said it would increase and 42% said it would decrease. I know mine had to increase but then again, it really could not have gotten much lower.
Question #3: Whether or not you control it, will your company’s marketing budget 48% said it would be about the same, 28% said increase and 16% said decrease. I am a sales person trying to get some of that marketing budget, and as such I am sure I am always told the truth about budgets, that being the case this one is dead wrong. All budgets have been cut or completely eliminated just like the printing, food and water or whatever else it is I sell and” besides even if I were to have any money to spend on whatever it is you are selling the owners neighbor’s brother’s pet poodle has the best price and superior service to anything that anyone in the whole world has to offer”….yeah, like I said I am a sales person trying to get a piece of the budget.
Question #4: The recession 81% said it is going strong, 11% said the worst is yet to come. Yikes! Not much hope of disproving this one.
Questions #5: When did the current economic downturn begin? 40% said 2007, 40% said 2008 and the rest said 2006. I have actually thought that this is a continued downturn that started in the early 2000’s maybe even coinciding with a certain date in September of 2001.
Question #6: In Chicago sports, which is most likely: 54% said the Blackhawks would win the Stanly Cup how about that? 4% said the Bulls would make the playoffs, 11.5% said the White Sox would win the World Series and 11.5% said the Cubs would win the World Series. As you know 2 of these happened, one cannot happen and with apologies to the handful of Sox fans that are not jerks I hope the last one does not happen
Predictions sure to go wrong.
Finally, for those who follow baseball there has been a recent comparison of Steven Strasburg to Mark Prior. Not a good comparison at all. Mark Prior needs to be compared to Mark “the Bird” Fidrych. Strasburg will be fine and go on to have a very long and good career after he recovers from his elbow surgery. There, another prediction.
Plan for the call, hit it hard and see what happens.